WN 4109 · SAT → MDW

took off 2:51 PM CT · landed 5:05 PM CT (scheduled 2:22 PM CT → 4:51 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MDW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4109 · SAT → MDW

Odds over time

How late did it get to MDW?