Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4139
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4139 · SMF → MCO
departs 11:35 AM PT · arrives 7:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±7 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.