Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4155
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4155 · TPA → BWI
departs 7:12 PM ET · arrives 9:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 4%
Sun 11/1 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.