tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4158 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

WN 4158 · DEN → OAK

took off 4:01 PM MT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 3:42 PM MT → 5:16 PM PT)
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
20% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 6.7d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to OAK?

  1. On time or early
    79%
  2. 15–30 min late
    10%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    7%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    2%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.