WN 4175 · SAN → SFO

took off 8:03 PM PT · landed 9:06 PM PT (scheduled 7:49 PM PT → 9:20 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ 7pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4175 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?