Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4234 · BWI → SAN
departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 9:09 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.