Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4315 · HOU → FLL
departs 6:44 PM CT · arrives 10:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.02 in
FLL (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.