WN 4316 · MDW → RIC

took off 6:38 PM CT · landed 9:01 PM ET (scheduled 6:08 PM CT → 9:04 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RIC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Arrivals into RIC at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4316 · MDW → RIC

Odds over time

How late did it get to RIC?