WN 433 · AUS → TPA

took off 1:32 PM CT · landed 4:26 PM ET (scheduled 12:25 PM CT → 3:53 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TPA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at TPA that day

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 433 · AUS → TPA

Odds over time

How late did it get to TPA?