Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4378
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4378 · AUS → MCO
departs 11:13 AM CT · arrives 2:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.