WN 4393 · DEN → SMF

took off 6:21 PM MT · landed 7:37 PM PT (scheduled 4:28 PM MT → 6:01 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4393 · DEN → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?