Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4398
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4398 · MCO → AUS
departs 2:10 PM ET · arrives 3:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 32%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.