Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4405
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4405 · MCO → PHX
departs 8:25 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30 29%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
11%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.