Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4478 · BWI → JAX
departs 8:43 AM ET · arrives 10:50 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.