Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4533 · AUS → FLL
departs 3:50 PM CT · arrives 7:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.01 in
FLL (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,367 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.