Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4582
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4582 · AUS → MCO
departs 2:31 PM CT · arrives 5:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 14%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.