WN 4586 · BNA → ONT

took off 12:26 PM CT · landed 2:08 PM PT (scheduled 12:13 PM CT → 2:29 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ONT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ONT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4586 · BNA → ONT

Odds over time

How late did it get to ONT?