Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4627
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4627 · AUS → LAX
departs 7:36 PM CT · arrives 8:43 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Wed 10/28
Fri 10/30 35%
Sat 10/31 9%
Mon 11/2 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.