Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4811 · MCO → PIT
departs 10:38 AM ET · arrives 12:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 10%
Sat 10/31 6%
Mon 11/2 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
10am departures from MCO are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.