Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4868 · SFO → PHX
departs 3:52 PM PT · arrives 5:52 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.