Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4871
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4871 · PHX → PDX
departs 9:06 AM MT · arrives 11:42 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at PDX that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.