Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4872
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4872 · SRQ → MCO
departs 7:17 AM ET · arrives 8:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 4%
Fri 10/30 5%
Sat 10/31 4%
Mon 11/2 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Other factors
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
7am departures from SRQ are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.