WN 490 · AUS → BNA

departs 8:17 PM CT · arrives 10:19 PM CT

Your aircraft is N9013M (B38M), coming in as WN 4819 from PIT: in the air, landing about 7:21 PM CT, 51 min before departure.

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip0.02 in

BNA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 490 · AUS → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?