Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4931
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4931 · STL → SFO
departs 8:34 AM CT · arrives 10:43 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 28%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±6 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.