WN 494 · MDW → STL

took off 2:53 PM CT · landed 3:37 PM CT (scheduled 2:44 PM CT → 3:57 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to STL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 494 · MDW → STL

Odds over time

How late did it get to STL?