WN 4959 · SFO → LAS

took off 7:22 PM PT · landed 8:36 PM PT (scheduled 5:47 PM PT → 7:17 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LAS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4959 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late did it get to LAS?