Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4986
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4986 · MCO → IND
departs 1:56 PM ET · arrives 4:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30 32%
Sat 10/31 31%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
1pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.