Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5020
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28
WN 5020 · BNA → MDW
departs 2:01 PM CT · arrives 3:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.