Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 502
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 502 · SJO → MCO
departs 9:05 AM CST · arrives 2:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±7 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SJO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJO (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.