Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 51
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 51 · PHL → DAL
departs 4:05 PM ET · arrives 6:18 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
4pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.