WN 540 · BNA → RDU

took off 3:12 PM CT · landed 5:23 PM ET (scheduled 2:50 PM CT → 5:23 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RDU?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 540 · BNA → RDU

Odds over time

How late did it get to RDU?