Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 616 · MCO → NAS
departs 11:52 AM ET · arrives 1:11 PM EDT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at NAS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at NAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at NAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to NAS?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
11am departures from MCO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into NAS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
NAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.