Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 812
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 812 · PUJ → BWI
departs 2:50 PM AST · arrives 6:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 27%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave PUJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at PUJ that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PUJ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.