Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8505
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 8505 · MCO → TPA
departs 11:05 AM ET · arrives 11:58 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
11am departures from MCO are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.