Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 862 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, October 28

WN 862 · SJC → ONT

took off 7:58 PM PT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 7:24 PM PT → 8:47 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into ONT at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from SJC are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ONT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,686 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 862 · SJC → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?