Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 924
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 924 · BWI → SRQ
departs 6:37 PM ET · arrives 9:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 35%
Fri 10/30 26%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at SRQ that day
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.