WS 1100 · YEG → PHX

departs 4:26 PM MDT · arrives 7:02 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 3.3 in of snow forecast at YEG that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YEG (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.05 in

PHX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WS 1100 · YEG → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?