WS 1101 · PHX → YEG

departs 7:51 PM MT · arrives 12:21 AM MDT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at YEG more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YEG?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
23%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.7 in of snow forecast at YEG that day

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YEG (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WS 1101 · PHX → YEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to YEG?