Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
WESTJET · FLIGHT WS 1504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WS 1504 · YYC → SFO
departs 7:56 PM MDT · arrives 9:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave YYC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at YYC that day
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
YYC (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.