WS 1853 · OGG → YVR

departs 3:01 PM HT · arrives 11:50 PM PDT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YVR?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YVR

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into YVR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.05 in

YVR (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WS 1853 · OGG → YVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to YVR?