Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 1453 IN THE AIR (OFF 1:54 AM ET, ETA 6:58 AM -05) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, October 28 Today

XL 1453 · JFK → GYE

took off 1:54 AM ET · expected to land 6:58 AM -05 (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 1am departures from JFK are often late

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GYE

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GYE (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

XL 1453 · JFK → GYE

Odds over time