Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
Y4 1781 · MCO → GDL
departs 3:27 PM ET · arrives 5:14 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±6 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.