Y4 1782 · LAX → PBC

departs 3:48 PM PT · arrives 8:39 PM CST

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at PBC more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PBC?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PBC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 1782 · LAX → PBC

Odds over time

How late will it get to PBC?