Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
Y4 1811 · SMF → GDL
departs 11:30 PM PT · arrives 4:41 AM CST
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.1d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Y4's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.