Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1813
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
Y4 1813 · SMF → GDL
departs 1:15 AM PT · arrives 6:18 AM CST
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.