Y4 1831 · FAT → GDL

departs 2:45 AM PT · arrives 7:23 AM CST

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GDL?

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ FAT is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL

Weather at each end

FAT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GDL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 1831 · FAT → GDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to GDL?