Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 505
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
Y4 505 · EWR → PBC
departs 7:02 AM ET · arrives 9:52 AM CST
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Fri 10/30 23%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at PBC more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PBC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at PBC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PBC?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 11 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
PBC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.