Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 771 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

Y4 771 · OAK → MEX

departs 12:32 AM PT · arrives 5:19 AM CST

Your aircraft is XAVUQ (A21N), coming in as Y4 770 from MEX: landed 11:37 AM PT.

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 771 · OAK → MEX

Odds over time