Y4 7801 · SJC → MLM

departs 1:50 PM PT · arrives 6:57 PM CST

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MLM?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MLM

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MLM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 7801 · SJC → MLM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MLM?