Y4 7840 · ZCL → LAX

departs 8:50 PM CST · arrives 11:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ZCL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

LAX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 7840 · ZCL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?